I loko o kahi mākeke honua, hiki ke manaʻo ʻia ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i ka hana - ma ka pipeline a me ka ʻāpana laina mana he kumu nui kēia.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻokoʻa ka hana sub-sector pili ʻaʻole wale ma ka palapala honua a me ka māhele mākeke akā ma ka hohonu o ka wai, nā mea hana a me nā kūlana kaiapuni.Hōʻike ʻia kahi hiʻohiʻona nui o kēia mau dinamika e nā pae like ʻole o ka ulu ʻana o ka mākeke i manaʻo ʻia e ka ʻāina.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻoiai ke emi mālie nei nā mākeke wai pāpaʻu o ke Kai ʻĀkau a me ke Kaiwa o Mekiko (GoM), ke piʻi nui nei nā wahi o ka Hema Hikina Hema, Brazil a me ʻApelika.Eia nō naʻe, manaʻo ʻia ka pōʻaiapuni pōkole e ʻike i ka ulu nui ʻana o nā ʻāpana palena o ka wai hohonu Norewai, ke Komohana o UK o Shetland a me ka Lower Tertiary Trend ma ke Kaiwa o Mekiko, me ka wai hohonu, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī a ʻoi aku ka mamao o ka hana hoʻokele wai. keia mau aina.Ma kēia loiloi, hōʻike ʻo Luke Davis lāua ʻo Gregory Brown o Infield Systems i ke kūlana o kēia manawa o ka paipu a me nā mākeke laina hoʻokele a me nā mea e manaʻo ai nā mea nānā ʻoihana no kahi pōʻai mākeke hoʻololi.
Mākeʻakaʻike
I nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana, ua wānana ʻo Infield Systems i ka pipeline a me ka hoʻolilo ʻana i ka laina hoʻokele e kokoke ana i ka hōʻailona $270bn, e like ana me kahi kokoke i 80,000km o nā laina a ʻo 56,000km ka pipeline a ʻo 24,000km nā laina mana.Ma ka hui pū ʻana o kēia mau ʻāpana ʻelua e manaʻo ʻia e ʻike i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka ulu ʻana ma hope o ka hāʻule nui ʻana ma waena o nā kiʻekiʻe o ka makahiki 2008 a me nā haʻahaʻa o 2009 a me 2010. Eia naʻe, ʻoiai kēia manaʻo nui o ka ulu ʻana, he mea nui e hoʻomaopopo i nā ʻokoʻa koʻikoʻi o ka ʻāina. i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā mākeke e puka mai ana ma mua o nā kīʻaha kuʻuna o ka hana.
ʻOiai ke manaʻo ʻia nei e hoʻonui hou ʻia ka hoʻolimalima kālā ma nā wahi ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi o ka wā lōʻihi ke nānā ʻia me kekahi o nā mākeke e kū mai ana.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ua hui pū nā hanana hou ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, me ka hāʻule ʻana mai ka pilikia kālā, ka pōʻino ʻo Macondo a me ka hoʻokūkū mai ke kinoea shale onshore, e hōʻemi i ka hana E&A wai pāpaʻu a no laila ke kahua a me ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā pipeline ma ka ʻāina.Ua wehe ʻia kahi kiʻi like ma UK North Sea - ʻoiai ʻo ka mākeke lohi ma ʻaneʻi e alakaʻi nui ʻia e nā loli i ke aupuni kālā o ka ʻāina a me nā pilikia i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hōʻaiʻē - kahi kūlana i hoʻonui ʻia e ka pilikia ʻaiʻē aupuni ma ka Eurozone.
Eia nō naʻe, ʻoiai ke kūpaʻa nei kēia mau ʻāina pāpaʻu kuʻuna ʻelua, ke manaʻo nei ʻo Infield Systems i ka ulu nui ʻana o nā mākeke e kū mai ana o North Western Australia, East Africa a me nā ʻāpana o Asia (me ka hana wai hohonu ma ke Kai Kina Hema a me nā kīʻaha o Krishna-Godavari ma waho o India) ʻoiai. pono e hoʻomau i ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka manawa lōʻihi no ka mākeke.
Ka neʻe ʻana o nā mauna - ka ulu ʻana o nā laina kumu
ʻOiai ke ʻano o ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka wai hohonu, a no laila e hoʻomau ʻia nā laina SURF e pili ana, e hoʻomau i ka nānā ʻana i ka ʻoihana, manaʻo ʻia nā hoʻokomo wai pāpaʻu e mālama i kahi māhele mākeke nui no ka wā e hiki mai ana.ʻOiaʻiʻo, e like me ka ʻelua hapakolu o ka hoʻolilo kālā kālā i manaʻo ʻia e kuhikuhi ʻia i nā hoʻomohala ʻana ma lalo o 500 mika o ka wai i ka manawa a hiki i 2015. No laila, ʻo ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā paipu maʻamau e lilo i hapa nui o ka noi e hele ana i mua - he hapa nui. ʻO ia ka mea i wānana ʻia e alakaʻi ʻia e nā hoʻomohala wai pāpaʻu ma waho o Asia.
ʻO ke kumu wai pāpaʻu a me nā laina hoʻokuʻu aku e lilo i mea hoʻohui o ka mākeke pipeline ākea i nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana e like me ka wānana o kēia subsector e hōʻike i ka ulu ikaika loa.ʻO ka hana i loko o kēia ʻāpana i alakaʻi ʻia e ke kaomi ʻana i nā aupuni aupuni a me nā luna kūloko e hoʻonui i ka palekana o ka ikehu ma o ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā lako hydrocarbon.Ke hilinaʻi nui nei kēia mau pipeline nui i nā pilina pili honua a me nā kūlana macroeconomic, a no laila hiki ke hoʻokuʻu ʻia i nā lohi a me nā loiloi hou i ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe o ka mākeke.
Paʻa ʻo ʻEulopa i ka hapa nui loa o ka ʻāpana kūʻai o waho a me ka mākeke laina kumu me 42% o ka huina o ka honua holoʻokoʻa kilomika a me ka wānana 38% o ka hoʻolilo kālā i ka makahiki 2015. Kuhi ʻia nā kumukūʻai o ke kahawai, ka ʻāpana ʻEulopa a me ka laina hoʻokuʻu aku ma kahi o US $21,000m ma luna o ka manawa 2011-2015.
Ua hoʻolaha mua ʻia ma 2001, pili ka papahana Nord Stream iā Vyborg ma Rūsia iā Greifswald ma Kelemānia.ʻO ka laina ka pipeline subsea lōʻihi loa ma ka honua ma 1,224km ka lōʻihi.Ua komo ka papahana Nord Stream i kahi hui paʻakikī o nā ʻaelike e like me Royal Boskalis Westminster, Tideway, Sumitomo, Saipem, Allseas, Technip a me Snamprogetti ma waena o nā mea ʻē aʻe e hana ana no kahi consortium e komo pū me Gazprom, GDF Suez, Wintershall, Gasunie a me E.ON Ruhrgas.I Nowemapa 2011 ua hoʻolaha ʻia e ka consortium e pili ana ka laina mua o nā laina ʻelua i ka pahu kinoea ʻEulopa.I ka pau ʻana, manaʻo ʻia ka papahana pipeline pilikua nui e hoʻolako i ka mākeke ʻEulopa pōloli i ka ikehu me 55 BCM o ke kinoea (e like me 18% o 2010 komohana komohana ʻEulopa) i kēlā me kēia makahiki i nā makahiki he 50 e hiki mai ana.Ma waho aʻe o Nord Stream, manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui nui ʻia ka hoʻopukapuka ʻana i ka mākeke o ka pahu a me nā laina e kūʻai aku ma waena o Asia, e piʻi ana mai US $ 4,000m i ka wā kahiko 2006-2010 a kokoke i US $ 6,800m e hele ana i mua i 2015. he mea ia e hōʻike ana i ka ulu ʻana o ka ikehu ma waena o Asia.
Hoʻopili ʻo Nord Stream i nā paʻakikī logistic, politika a me ka ʻenekinia e pili ana i nā hoʻomohala ʻana i nā laina kumu nui.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ma waho aʻe o nā pilikia ʻenehana e pili ana i ka ʻenekinia ʻelua 1,224km pipelines, ua hana ʻia ka consortium hoʻomohala i ka hoʻokele ʻana i nā hopena politika o ka holo ʻana i kahi laina ma waena o nā wai ʻāina o Rūsia, Finland, Suedena, Denmark a me Kelemānia ma kahi o ka hoʻokō ʻana i nā koi o ka nā mokuʻāina i hoʻopilikia ʻia o Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia a me Polani.Ma kahi o ʻeiwa mau makahiki no ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻae ʻana o ka papahana a i ka loaʻa ʻana iā ia i Pepeluali 2010, ua hoʻomaka koke ka hana ma ʻApelila o ia makahiki hoʻokahi.Hoʻopau ʻia ka pipelay ʻo Nord Stream i ka Q3 2012 me ka hoʻokō ʻana i ka laina ʻelua e hoʻopau ai i kekahi o nā moʻolelo mau loa i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā ʻoihana hoʻokuʻu aku.ʻO ka pipeline Trans ASEAN kahi papahana laina kumu e holo ai ma ʻĀsia a pēlā e hoʻonui ai i nā lako hydrocarbon nui o Asia Hema Hikina i nā wahi waiwai waiwai.
ʻOiai ke hoʻoikaika nei kēia pae kiʻekiʻe o ka hana ʻaʻole ia he ʻano lōʻihi lōʻihi - akā he hōʻailona ia o kēia pōʻai ma ka mākeke.Ma waho aʻe o ka ulu kokoke ʻana o ka hana ʻEulopa Hikina, ʻike ʻo Infield Systems i ka liʻiliʻi o ka noi ma hope o 2018 no ka mea ʻo kēia mau mea i hoʻomohala ʻia he mea nui loa ia o nā papahana a i ka wā e paʻa ai lākou ʻike ʻo Infield Systems i nā hana e hiki mai ana e alakaʻi ʻia e nā laina i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma mua o nā laina hoʻokuʻu nui. .
Ke holo nei i ka SURF - He ʻano wā lōʻihi
Ke alakaʻi ʻia e ka hana lana a me nā ʻenehana subsea ʻo ka mākeke wai hohonu o ka honua paha ka ulu wikiwiki loa o ka ʻoihana aila a me ka ʻenehana.ʻOiaʻiʻo, me ka nui o nā ʻāina wai uka a me ka pāpaʻu e kū nei i ka emi ʻana o ka hana a me nā NOC i ka mālama ʻana i nā wahi waiwai waiwai e like me ka Middle East, ke ʻimi nui nei nā mea hana e ʻimi a hoʻomohala i nā wahi mālama ma nā ʻāina palena.ʻAʻole wale kēia ma nā ʻāpana "kaumaha" hohonu ʻekolu - ʻo GoM, West Africa a me Brazil - akā ma Asia, Australasia a me ʻEulopa pū kekahi.
No ka mākeke SURF, ʻo ke ʻano maʻalahi a ʻokoʻa hoʻi i ka hana E&P hohonu hohonu e pono e unuhi i ka ulu nui o ka mākeke i nā makahiki he ʻumi aʻe.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ua ulu ikaika nā wanana Infield Systems i ka makahiki 2012 i ka hoʻomau ʻana o nā IOC i kā lākou mau wai hohonu hohonu ma West Africa a me ka US GoM ʻoiai ʻo Petrobras e hoʻomau i mua me kāna hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mālama paʻakai mua o Brazil.
E like me ka Hōʻike 3 ma lalo nei, aia kahi polarization i ka hana mākeke ma waena o nā mākeke SURF pāpaʻu a hohonu.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻoiai ke manaʻo nei ka mākeke wai pāpaʻu e hōʻike i ka ulu haʻahaʻa i ka wā kokoke - ʻaʻole maikaʻi ke ʻano o ka wā lōʻihi.Eia nō naʻe, i loko o nā kai hohonu, ʻoi aku ka ikaika o ka hana no ka mea e manaʻo ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o ka huina kālā ma kahi o 56% ma waena o nā manawa 2006-2010 a me 2011-2015.
ʻOiai ʻo ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka wai hohonu ʻo ia ka mīkini ulu nui no ka mākeke SURF i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala aku nei ka hoʻomau ʻana o ka hoʻomohala ʻana o nā ʻaila aila mamao a me nā māla ʻea e hāʻawi hou i ka wahie i ke ahi.ʻO ka mea nui, ke lilo nei nā kuʻekuʻe i lalo i kahi hiʻohiʻona hoʻomohala maʻamau e like me ka hana R&D e nā mea hoʻohana a hoʻomaka kā lākou mau ʻaelike e hana i kēia mau papahana paʻakikī.ʻO nā papahana kiʻekiʻe hou loa e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana o Statoil a me Shell's Ormen Lange ma waho o Norewai a me Total's Laggan papahana ma waho o UK ma ke Komohana o Shetland.ʻO ka mua ka lōʻihi loa o ka honua i lalo o ke kai a i kahakai e hana nei a ʻo ka mea hope e wāwahi i kēlā moʻolelo a wehe i ka palena ʻAkelanika e hoʻonui i ka hana E&P i ka manawa i kauoha ʻia i 2014.
ʻO kekahi hiʻohiʻona koʻikoʻi o kēia ʻano aia i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka māla Jansz hohonu ma waho o Australia.ʻO Jansz kahi ʻāpana o ka papahana Greater Gorgon, e like me ka Chevron e lilo i kumu waiwai nui loa ma ka mōʻaukala o Australia.Hoʻokomo ka papahana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i kekahi mau māla, me Gorgon a me Jansz, a ʻo ka nui o nā mea i manaʻo ʻia he 40 Tcf.ʻO ka waiwai o ka papahana i manaʻo ʻia he US $43bn, a ua manaʻo ʻia ka hana mua ʻana o LNG i ka makahiki 2014. Aia ka ʻāina ʻo Greater Gorgon ma waena o 130km a me 200km mai ke kahakai o North West Australia.E hoʻopili ʻia nā kahua e kahi pipeline subsea 70 km, 38 iniha a me kahi pipeline subsea 180km 38 inch i kahi hale LNG ma Barrow Island.Mai ka Mokupuni ʻo Barrow e hoʻohui ʻia kahi paipu 90 km i ka hale i ka ʻāina nui o Australia.
ʻOiai ʻo ka hoʻomohala ʻana o SURF e like me nā mea i ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ke Kai ʻĀkau, Brazil, West Africa, GoM, Asia a me North West Australia e hoʻokele nei i ka mākeke i kēia lā, e paipai ana i nā hopena E&A ma East Africa e hāʻawi i ka ulu hou aʻe ma lalo o ka laina.ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻo nā kūleʻa ʻimi hou e like me nā mea ma Windjammer, Barquentine a me Lagosta ua alakaʻi i nā puke i ʻike ʻia ma mua o ka paepae (10 Tcf) no kahi hale LNG.ʻO ʻApelika Hikina a me Mozambique, ke kapa ʻia nei ʻo Australia o ka lā ʻapōpō.Hoʻolālā ʻo Anadarko, ka mea hoʻohana ma Windjammer, Barquentine a me Lagosta e hoʻomohala i kēia mau mālama ma o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i waho i kahi hale LNG ma uka.I kēia manawa ua hui pū ʻia e ka ʻike ʻana a Eni ma Mamba South e hana ana i kahi papahana 22.5 Tcf hiki ke hiki i ka hopena o nā makahiki he ʻumi.
ʻO kahi paipu o nā manawa kūpono
ʻO ka ulu ʻana i ka pipeline, ka laina hoʻokele a ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka mākeke ākea ākea i ka pōʻai e hiki mai ana e ʻike ʻia e nā papahana hohonu, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī a ʻoi aku ka mamao.ʻO IOC, NOC a me ke komo kūʻokoʻa e hoʻokumu i kahi mākeke ʻaelike momona no nā mea ʻaelike nui a me kā lākou mau hoa ʻōiwi.ʻO ia kūlana kiʻekiʻe o ka hana e kau i ke koʻikoʻi nui ma luna o ke kaulahao lako i ka wā lōʻihi no ka mea ua ʻoi aku ka makemake o ka hoʻopukapuka kālā mai nā mea hoʻohana i ka wai o ka aie i koi ʻia e hoʻokomo i nā kumu waiwai o ka lako: nā mea kanu hana, nā moku hoʻonohonoho a me ka mea nui loa. , enekinia paipu.
ʻOiai ʻo ke kumumanaʻo holoʻokoʻa o ka ulu ʻana he hōʻailona maikaʻi i ka loaʻa kālā o ka wā e hiki mai ana, pono e hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻia kēlā manaʻo e ka makaʻu i kahi kaulahao lako me ka lawa ʻole o ka hiki ke mālama i kēlā piʻi.ʻO ia ka manaʻo o Infield Systems ma waho aʻe o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hōʻaiʻē, ka paʻa politika a me ke kākau hou ʻana i ke kānāwai olakino a me ka palekana, ʻo ka hoʻoweliweli koʻikoʻi i ka ulu holoʻokoʻa o ka mākeke ʻo ka nele o nā ʻenehana akamai i ka limahana.
Pono nā poʻe kuleana o ka ʻoihana e hoʻomaopopo ʻoiai he moʻolelo ulu ikaika, ʻo nā hana e hiki mai ana i ka paipu a me nā mākeke laina hoʻokele e hilinaʻi ʻia i kahi kaulahao lako i lawa ka nui a me ka hiki ke kākoʻo i ka nui o nā papahana i hoʻolālā ʻia e nā mea hana like ʻole.Me kēia mau makaʻu ke noho nei ka mākeke ma ka lihi o kahi pōʻai hoihoi.E nānā pono nā mea nānā ʻoihana ʻo Infield Systems i nā mahina e hiki mai ana me ka kali ʻana i ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana o ka mākeke mai nā haʻahaʻa o 2009 a me 2010.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Apr-27-2022